Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Sorry Jack

Bogle: Vanguard is always near the top in performance and it's always the lowest cost...

The legendary Vanguard 500 Index Investor

Trailing Total Returns as of today's close

Total Return %+/- S&P 500 TR+/- Morningstar Large Core TR USD Index % Rank in Cat
1-Day-1.880.000.2776
1-Week-1.090.010.4176
1-Month4.450.02-0.9163
3-Month22.270.03-1.5649
Year-to-date0.050.031.6864
1-Year-33.740.02-4.7651
3-Year Annualized-9.41-0.06-2.9348
5-Year Annualized-2.57-0.09-2.0553
10-Yr Annualized*-2.56-0.08-1.3156


The S&P 500 consistently underperforms most large cap blend mutual funds. Clearly, survivor bias is an issue here, but not enough to worry about.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Thank Jesus for Rosey

Illiterate Bear fucker rants again.

Dave Rosenberg is one of those guys, the ones that amaze you. How is Rosey amazing? It is certainly not because he is an economist who has no understanding of economics. That really doesn't win you a prize (well, I guess it does). What is so amazing, is that he has a new job, and that people actually think he has a fucking clue. Being right for the wrong reasons is plain lucky.

Welcome to Crazy Town

A truly amazing video, Jeff Macke doing what everyone else would do if forced to deal with the likes of Dennis Kneale (amongst others). (Undeserved hat tip to Dealbreaker)






Monday, May 11, 2009

Fuck you Jared

Or, McDonald's is the new health food.

First, a disclaimer, I am not all that concerned with eating healthy. As proof of this, I admit to eating McDonald's nearly every day. Shockingly, I haven't been Super Sized.*

My take on nutrition and eating properly: calories are neutral, we need them to live. Too many will make you fat, but I don't have that issue. Thus, I try to maximize the protein, vitamins, and fiber while minimizing carbohydrates, sugar, and sodium. Fat, I could take it or leave it.

Using info from Subway, and comparing to McDonald's, I decided to do an interesting compare-o. How does my meal of choice, a McDouble and a 4 piece McNuggets compare with a "healthy" sandwich from Subway. For the sandwich I chose Jared's favorite, Turkey.

A 12 inch Turkey and my McDonald's dollar menu pair both have 580 calories. While the McDonald's out does subway in two categories, Fat (31/8 g) and Cholesterol (95/40 mg), Subway outdoes McDonald's in Sodium (2100/920 mg), Carbs (96/49 g) and Sugar (12/7 g). The Protein figure is somewhat shocking as the Subway has more protein (36/32 g).

At the very least, it is pretty hard to claim that Subway is particularly healthier than McDonald's provided you control for quantity.


*Spurlock can fuck off as well.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Fantastic

Unafraid In Greenwich Connecticut
Clifford S. Asness
Managing and Founding Principal
AQR Capital Management, LLC

The President has just harshly castigated hedge fund managers for being unwilling to take his administration’s bid for their Chrysler bonds. He called them “speculators” who were “refusing to sacrifice like everyone else” and who wanted “to hold out for the prospect of an unjustified taxpayer-funded bailout.”

The responses of hedge fund managers have been, appropriately, outrage, but generally have been anonymous for fear of going on the record against a powerful President (an exception, though still in the form of a “group letter”, was the superb note from “The Committee of Chrysler Non-TARP Lenders” some of the points of which I echo here, and a relatively few firms, like Oppenheimer, that have publicly defended themselves). Furthermore, one by one the managers and banks are said to be caving to the President’s wishes out of justifiable fear.

I run an approximately twenty billion dollar money management firm that offers hedge funds as well as public mutual funds and unhedged traditional investments. My company is not involved in the Chrysler situation, but I am still aghast at the President's comments (of course these are my own views not those of my company). Furthermore, for some reason I was not born with the common sense to keep it to myself, though my title should more accurately be called "Not Afraid Enough" as I am indeed fearful writing this... It’s really a bad idea to speak out. Angering the President is a mistake and, my views will annoy half my clients. I hope my clients will understand that I’m entitled to my voice and to speak it loudly, just as they are in this great country. I hope they will also like that I do not think I have the right to intentionally “sacrifice” their money without their permission.

Here's a shock. When hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, and individuals, including very sweet grandmothers, lend their money they expect to get it back. However, they know, or should know, they take the risk of not being paid back. But if such a bad event happens it usually does not result in a complete loss. A firm in bankruptcy still has assets. It’s not always a pretty process. Bankruptcy court is about figuring out how to most fairly divvy up the remaining assets based on who is owed what and whose contracts come first. The process already has built-in partial protections for employees and pensions, and can set lenders' contracts aside in order to help the company survive, all of which are the rules of the game lenders know before they lend. But, without this recovery process nobody would lend to risky borrowers. Essentially, lenders accept less than shareholders (means bonds return less than stocks) in good times only because they get more than shareholders in bad times.

The above is how it works in America, or how it’s supposed to work. The President and his team sought to avoid having Chrysler go through this process, proposing their own plan for re-organizing the company and partially paying off Chrysler’s creditors. Some bond holders thought this plan unfair. Specifically, they thought it unfairly favored the United Auto Workers, and unfairly paid bondholders less than they would get in bankruptcy court. So, they said no to the plan and decided, as is their right, to take their chances in the bankruptcy process. But, as his quotes above show, the President thought they were being unpatriotic or worse.

Let’s be clear, it is the job and obligation of all investment managers, including hedge fund managers, to get their clients the most return they can. They are allowed to be charitable with their own money, and many are spectacularly so, but if they give away their clients’ money to share in the “sacrifice”, they are stealing. Clients of hedge funds include, among others, pension funds of all kinds of workers, unionized and not. The managers have a fiduciary obligation to look after their clients’ money as best they can, not to support the President, nor to oppose him, nor otherwise advance their personal political views. That’s how the system works. If you hired an investment professional and he could preserve more of your money in a financial disaster, but instead he decided to spend it on the UAW so you could “share in the sacrifice”, you would not be happy.

Let’s quickly review a few side issues.

The President's attempted diktat takes money from bondholders and gives it to a labor union that delivers money and votes for him. Why is he not calling on his party to "sacrifice" some campaign contributions, and votes, for the greater good? Shaking down lenders for the benefit of political donors is recycled corruption and abuse of power.

Let’s also mention only in passing the irony of this same President begging hedge funds to borrow more to purchase other troubled securities. That he expects them to do so when he has already shown what happens if they ask for their money to be repaid fairly would be amusing if not so dangerous. That hedge funds might not participate in these programs because of fear of getting sucked into some toxic demagoguery that ends in arbitrary punishment for trying to work with the Treasury is distressing. Some useful programs, like those designed to help finance consumer loans, won't work because of this irresponsible hectoring.

Last but not least, the President screaming that the hedge funds are looking for an unjustified taxpayer-funded bailout is the big lie writ large. Find me a hedge fund that has been bailed out. Find me a hedge fund, even a failed one, that has asked for one. In fact, it was only because hedge funds have not taken government funds that they could stand up to this bullying. The TARP recipients had no choice but to go along. The hedge funds were singled out only because
they are unpopular, not because they behaved any differently from any other ethical manager of other people's money. The President’s comments here are backwards and libelous. Yet, somehow I don’t think the hedge funds will be following ACORN’s lead and trucking in a bunch of paid professional protestors soon. Hedge funds really need a community organizer.

This is America. We have a free enterprise system that has worked spectacularly for us for two hundred plus years. When it fails it fixes itself. Most importantly, it is not an owned lackey of the oval office to be scolded for disobedience by the President.

I am ready for my “personalized” tax rate now.

Friday, May 1, 2009

The Number One Cereal in the Game



Mom's Best Naturals, is the cereal you should be eating. As you might have read in Women's Day, Mom's Best has no artificial colors, flavors, hydrogenated oils or high-fructose corn syrup.* It is also much cheaper than advertised brands. They feature knock offs of cereals you might otherwise buy, but are often a bit lower in sugar. My favorites are, Oats and Honey (Honey Bunches of Oates), Mallow Oats (Lucky Charms), and Honey-ful Wheat (Honey Smacks). All as good, or better than their competition.




*Some varieties have some, but it is kept to a minimum.